THE STRUGGLE FOR GLOBAL HEGEMONEY
The Russo-Ukrainian war is strategically a struggle for the maintenance of the Euro-American driven global hegemony.
As such, the war is not simply between Russia and Ukraine. This war is actually in three layers :
1. Russo-Ukrainian
2. Euro-Ukrainian,
3. Russo-American dominated NATO.
At the first level of Russia and Ukraine, the question of Ukraine’s membership of NATO is a very critical issue. Ukraine is being encouraged, if not being pressured, to join NATO. Russia on the other hand is vehemently opposed to such membership, considering the security implications.
For Russia, considering the recidivist de-Russification in various manners, and based on Europe’s subtle militarisation of Ukraine, Russia wants to completely neutralise Ukraine and remove whatever the country stands for and that makes her attractive to NATO countries. In the absence of any relevant Ukraine, the NATO would have been weakened.
At the second level of Euro-Ukrainian strategy, the support for Ukraine is preventive defence.
The EU does not want the extension of the Ukrainian shooting war to come nearer the borders of the EU countries, hence the need to help Ukrainians to fight their battle at home, and to make it more difficult and more costly for Russia to win the war.
Besides, there is the need to also ensure the sustenance of cordial ties with Ukraine, considered the most important ally of the EU in the context of the Union’s Eastern Partnerships and the European Neighbourhood Policy.
And true enough, the EU and Ukraine have been making efforts to go beyond relationships of partnership to efforts at politico-economic integration. This ultimate objective requires cautionary policies that can prevent much destruction and sustain Ukraine.
At the level of Russo-American and NATO attitude, Russia sees the United States as the most unreliable partner, seeking to impose its hegemony on Russia, but which Russia is not in any way prepared to condone.
According to Russia, an agreement was reached with the United States that when the Warsaw Pact would be dismantled, the NATO would similarly be dismantled to put an end to the Cold War instruments.
When the Warsaw Pact was set aside, the United States reneged on the agreement.
What the United States has been doing instead is broadening the membership of the NATO to include Eastern European countries. Since the United States is considered not reliable, the strategic belief in Russia is that, rather than wait to be cut unawares by US mischiefs, the rule of prevention is better than cure prevails, hence the special military intervention in Ukraine to frontally confront the NATO countries.
However, the NATO countries do not want to have any direct confrontation with Russia. The United States even made it crystal clear that there will not be any single American soldier fighting on Ukrainian soil against Russia.
What the United States and its allies have been doing is to strengthen Ukrainian capacity against Russian attacks in various ways, ranging from financial resources and critical sanctions against Russia to provision of significant survivalist assistance.
The European Union has also adopted, at least, five rounds of sanctions. The fifth package of such sanctions, adopted on April 13, 2022, included a ban on imports from Russia of coal and other solid fossil fuels; all Russian vessels from accessing EU ports; deposits to crypto wallets; seafood and liquor; and Russian and Belarussian Road Transport Operators from entering the EU (Vide EU Press Release, 8 April 2022).
At the March 2022 International Donors’ Conference for Ukraine, organised by Poland and Sweden and attended by Mr. Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, three key areas of support were outlined: humanitarian support, short-term liquidity needs, and reconstruction.
In this regard, the idea of a Solidarity Trust Fund to support Ukraine was mooted. In the words of Charles Michel, ‘the cornerstone of our Solidarity Trust Fund is precisely the word, “trust.”
We trust Ukraine. And our efforts here today reflect this trust. Together we will rebuild a modern, prosperous, and democratic Ukraine, a country of full confidence and ready to embrace its European future and its place in our common European family.’
On April 13, 2022, the Council also accepted to exchange Ukrainian Hryvnia banknotes into EU countries. According to the Council, ‘the schemes would allow displaced persons from Ukraine, including children, to exchange up to 10,000 Hrydnias (about €310) per person.
This would be free of charges and at the official exchange rate as published by the National Bank of Ukraine.’ There is also the €3.5 billion given to EU countries as additional pre-financing for hosting Ukrainian refugees.
Apart from this, the EU Health Ministers put in place a solidarity mechanism to transport Ukrainian patients, access to vaccination against infectious diseases, especially for children, and mental health initiatives. More importantly, the Health Ministers reaffirmed their commitment to the provision of health to Ukrainians and to Member States on the EU borders that are first in line when it comes to providing medical care for Ukrainian refugees.
The Council of the European Union again adopted on May 6, 2022 a mandate on new rules that enabled the Eurojust to store and preserve evidence related to war crimes, including satellite images, photographs, videos, audio recordings, DNA profiles and finger prints (Eurojust Press, 06 May 2022).
What is noteworthy about the assistance to Ukraine is that two humanitarian exceptions were introduced by the Council: Ukraine Territorial Integrity Regime and the Donetsk and Luhansk Regime.
The territorial integrity regime is about restrictive measures concerning actions that undermine or threaten Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty.
The other regime deals with restrictive measures taken in reaction to the recognition of the non-government-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts and the ordering of Russian armed forces into those areas (Press Release, 13 April 2022).
It is additionally noteworthy that the protective measures provided for Europeans at the borders with Ukraine do not consider the non-European refugees at the borders.
Many were Africans seeking refuge at the border but were ignored. But very ridiculously, the same EU is seeking the understanding and support of Africa for Ukraine and Europe.
What a contradiction! Without doubt, the United States is struggling hard to maintain its hegemonic power, using NATO countries as foundation.
Russia is seriously challenging the rationale for sustaining US hegemony with the support of China, another main challenger to contend with.
On both sides, Africa is quietly being courted for support. The critical interest is no longer the use of Africa as a source of raw materials for the development of Europe, but the critical need to prevent the replacement of Euro-American influence with Sino-Russian influence in Africa.
France, for instance, is currently challenged by unexpected hostility in many Francophone African countries. Consequently, Africa must prepare for how the United States and its allies and Russia with China are most likely to engage Africa in the conduct and management of global affairs. In other words, how should Africa respond to the emerging hegemonic powers?
