ARICA REPORT
Nigeria Elections and how the outcome can affect the Gulf of Guinea.
Nigeria’s 2023 general election is just weeks away.
In a recent Afrobarometer survey, nearly 89 percent of Nigerians felt that the country was heading in the wrong direction, and 77 percent were dissatisfied with the way their democracy has been performing. There are some reasons for optimism that the upcoming polls will be an improved one since the 2019 election. First, President Buhari has strongly signaled that he wants a credible, transparent electoral process to be an important part of his legacy. Legal reforms enabled earlier planning and new technology has been deployed to improve voter accreditation and the transmission of results. A surge of new voter registrations, especially among young people, suggests that Nigerians believe the 2023 elections are a process worth their time and energy. But political violence continues to bedevil the country. Among its most worrisome manifestations are the attacks on offices of the Independent National Electoral Commission also known as (INEC), which clearly aim to undermine the electoral process itself.
History has primed observers to be concerned about post-election violence. But the prospects of disarray due to attacks on election infrastructure, or of significant numbers of Nigerian voters determining that it simply is not safe to vote on election day, are also scenarios that call for urgent attention. Choosing Nigerian leadership is up to Nigerian voters, but external actors, including the United States, should continue to make it clear that anyone weaponizing fear to undermine democracy could be subject to targeted sanctions.
CHANCES AND POLITICAL INTRICACIES.
The stakes are high, not just for Nigerians, but more broadly for the region, where military coups and democratic backsliding have undermined regional governance norms. Nigeria has been internally focused for over a decade, unable and unwilling to wield the kind of decisive regional influence that it did years ago. But Nigeria is inescapably important to the future of the continent. The sheer size of its economy and population, alongside the power and reach of its cultural and creative industries, mean that even with a destructive foreign policy, Nigeria’s trajectory will affect societies far beyond its borders. With less than one months to go until Nigerians will head to the polls to elect a new president, one of the frontrunners — Peter Obi of the Labour Party — has received a major endorsement from former president Olusegun Obasanjo. In an open letter released over the weekend, Former president Obasanjo asked Nigerians to vote for Obi, whose candidacy has proved particularly popular among young voters.
In his letter he said "None of the contestants is a saint but when one compares their character, antecedent, their understanding, knowledge, discipline and vitality that they can bring to bear and the great efforts required to stay focused on the job, particularly looking at where the country is today and with the experience on the job that I personally had, Peter Obi as a mentee has an edge," he wrote in the letter. Other Candidates are Former Vice President of Nigeria Atiku Abubakar who constantly says he has paid his dues. And a Former Lagos state Governor Alhaji Ahmed Tinubu who plans on running a Muslim Muslim Ticket. African and International Polls has rated Peter Obi higher in terms of winning had no corrupt charges has been linked to Him so far, of which he uses the Now popular phrase in Nigeria " Go and Verify".
The truth is The stakes are high, not just for Nigerians, but more broadly for the region, where military coups and democratic backsliding have undermined regional governance norms. Nigeria has been internally focused for over a decade, unable and unwilling to wield the kind of decisive regional influence that it did years ago. But Nigeria is inescapably important to the future of the continent. The sheer size of its economy and population, alongside the power and reach of its cultural and creative industries, mean that even with a desultory foreign policy, Nigeria’s trajectory will affect societies far beyond its borders. IMPACT ON THE THE SUB AfRICAN REGION (Gulf of Guinea)
The Gulf of Guinea is a vast and diverse region stretching from Senegal to Angola, covering approximately 6,000 km of coastline. It is an important shipping zone transporting oil and gas, as well as goods to and from central and southern Africa. On any one day there are around 1,500 fishing vessels, tankers, and cargo ships navigating its waters. Piracy, armed robbery at sea, kidnapping of seafarers, illegal fishing, smuggling and trafficking, and transnational organised crime pose a major threat to maritime security in the Gulf of Guinea and ultimately to the economic development of the entire region. The EU Maritime Security Strategy Action Plan as well as the EU Gulf of Guinea Strategy and Action Plan frame the EU’s response to these challenges.
In 2020, according to the International Maritime Bureau, the Gulf of Guinea saw 84 attacks on ships, with 135 seafarers kidnaped for ransom. The Gulf of Guinea experienced a nearly 50 % increase in kidnapping for ransom between 2018 and 2019, and around 10 % increase between 2019 and 2020. The region now accounts for just over 95 % of all kidnappings for ransom at sea. ( in Some part of Nigeria for instance, fuel has gotten up to 700/L. Many analysts have linked The forth coming elections to it in connection to the numerous incidents going on in Gulf of Guinea. Strengthened cooperation between countries in the region and relevant regional organisations should help in reducing these threats at sea as well as its onshore sources.
To this end, the EU works closely with coastal states, and maintains cooperation with regional organisations such as ECOWAS and ECCAS. It also works closely with key international organisations such as Interpol and UNODC’s Global Maritime Crime Programme. Why is the Gulf of Guinea important to Nigerians? This is because It is one of the world's most important shipping routes for both Gulf of Guinea oil exports from the Niger Delta and consumer goods to and from central and southern Africa. There are 1,500 fishing vessels, tankers and cargo ships navigating the gulf's waters on a daily basis.
